Health Care Cost Reduction – Identifying the Study Population

It should be noted that about 55% of the 37 million aged Medicare beneficiaries are currently under treatment for at least one chronic disease. We started with projections of aged Medicare beneficiaries between 2008 through 2012.14 We then extracted the individuals who are currently taking the supplement based upon our analyses of 2000 National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) data to leave the individuals who are potential new users.

A ratio that is key to the determination of the number of potential new users who begin taking the supplement and could potentially benefit is the “take up” rate. The base take up rate for each of the supplements was determined using NHANES, information from the Nutrition Business Journal, and rates found in the literature for newly introduced Medicare benefits (such as mammograms, flu shots, and pneumonia shots).

The rate was then projected through the period of 2008-2012. This rate is applied to the potential new users to determine the individuals in the study population. For this study update, these rates were adjusted to reflect any new research and rolled forward based upon the annual projected growth in aged Medicare beneficiaries obtained from the Trustees report.


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14 2007 Medicare Combined Board of Trustees Annual Report


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